2012: end of the euro?

Who will save us from the collapse of the euro? It seems like witnessing the end of the Roman empire in 476 AD. At that time there was the dissolution of a political construction, today it’s an economic one. No rules were laid down for exiting the euro. If it’s difficult to enter, it’s impossible to exit. More or less like criminal organisations. The euro is worth less and less compared to other world currencies like the dollar and the yen. Its crisis is derived from the end of the debt era. The European countries, some to a greater or lesser extent, have financed their growth with the sale of public bonds. To a great extent they swapped them among themselves like cigarette cards. I’ll hand you my debt and you give me yours, the “absurd” elevated to economic science. The problem is that no one wants to buy European debt any more. Neither within nor outwith Europe. To sell it it’s necessary to increase the interest and thus to create new debt in a never ending race.
The value of the euro is guaranteed by the performance of Germany that however has a GDP/debt ratio of 82%. It’s beyond the maximum European threshold of 60% and its banks are among the least solid in Europe. Germany cannot shoulder the European debt. First it has to think about itself. The salvation for Europe should be the so-called Eurobonds, basically the debt of all the countries put in a common pot and issued to the market. The more virtuous states, like Germany and Holland, should also pay for the PIGS. A bit like in Italy where it’s always the ones who pay the taxes that pay for the tax dodgers. The Italian public debt is expressed in euro and it has to be repaid in euro. We cannot devalue the euro and even though our economy is worth less, the bonds keep their initial value. It’s a noose round our neck that gets tighter and tighter a centimetre at a time; the hangman is the “spread”. If our bonds were to have a value in lira, the devaluation of our currency would be reflected automatically. The problem would not need to be put forward. It was demoniacal and certainly Tafazzi-style to tie the value of OUR public bonds to the value of the euro over which we have no control whatsoever and that has nothing to do with our real economy. The Eurobonds should obviate this monstrosity but it is improbable that the Germans will put their hands in their pockets to save the Greeks and the Italians.
I don’t know where this French/German minuet is leading. It’s conducted by two ballet dancers: Merkel and Sarkozy, always out of time. The impression is that we are waiting for an order to “break ranks”. Preparation is necessary, even just as a probable alternative, a plan B for leaving the euro. Let’s not get there out of necessity.
The blog is proposing an opinion poll on the euro yes – or the euro no. Respond in great numbers with your suggestions.
PS. The opinion poll will be open until 2:00 pm tomorrow Saturday 26 November. Look at the results.
Posted by Beppe Grillo at 08:29 PM in Economics
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Comments
Who will save a country with a third of its market underground?
Who will save a country where corruption is costing the economy 70 billion euros?
Who will save a country where the rich feel morally exempt from paying taxes?
Who will save a country with the most corrupt political class in the West?
Who will save a country literally crumbling before the eyes of its citizens but no one hears, sees or says anything?
Who will save a country where organized crime has infiltrated every nook and cranny of society?
Who will save a country whose people have elected, three times, a politician who encouraged tax evasion, legalized financial cheating and made laws to keep himself out of jail?
Who will save a country whose half of the parliamentarians believed Ruby was Mubarak's niece?
Who will save a country where the "moral question" has been debated for the last fifty years only to become more and more amoral?
Who will save a country saving itself from its own citizens?
And those are the cunundrums
Posted by: louis pacella | November 26, 2011 04:02 PM
Mario Soares Portugal's ex leader understands the problem. "We cannot stand by idly watching the anarchy in international finance and the dismantling of the State. Nations cannot allow themselves to be dominated by the markets because they are just speculative."
There is the answer. Governments have to take back control from the bankers.
Posted by: peter fieldman | November 25, 2011 10:13 PM