The coup de spread

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The spread has substituted the body of the electorate. The “coup de spread” in place of the old “coup d'état”. No loss of blood, no demonstration in the streets, no “hot Autumn”. The spread instead of the Spritz. A hundred more points between the Italian bond and the German one and the game is over. No one is weeping for Berlusconi, but we all should be weeping for democracy. If Parliament is made up of people appointed by a few party secretaries, professor Monti was elected by the spread. If the markets were to change their minds about him, if he were to show himself to be too tender with tax payers, it would be enough to have another “coup de spread” to set off terror among the Italians. And voilà: another technical guy that can’t get any more technical would be swearing in with Napolitano. That’s to say, a guy like Amato. The liquidator, appointed by the markets is the President of the Council, this is where this wretched nation has got to. It was necessary to avoid repercussions for the French banks that hold a quarter of our public debt, and the performance of the euro, and thus German exports.
We have done our bit for putting our head on the block of international finance. Of the 1,900 billion of debt, about a half has been placed abroad, from Great Britain to China. And it’s enough for the next sales of 200 billion bonds to be deserted to make the country collapse. We cannot devalue the lira. We cannot at a European level print new money, like the United States did when it had gone bankrupt big-time in August when they raised the maxim limit on their public debt by 2,400 billion dollars. What’s left for us? Sell off the silverware to honour our debts. To the pawn shop, we’ll take the property of the state, the shares of the few big companies that are still left, like Eni, part of our personal property, the cuts to social services. It’s true that we have sinned, but the punishment should be useful for something. Instead it’s almost certain that not only will we leave the euro, but that the euro itself will not hold up in the next few years. By now that is what’s being written by the best international minds on the economy. And then what? Right now the mantra that is most in use is “Monti is the only alternative” accompanied by “We cannot exit from the euro”. There is always an alternative, a “plan B”. We have to consider the exit from the euro as a possibility. To lose everything after a policy of weeping and blood with a devalued lira doesn’t seem like a great objective to me.

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Posted by Beppe Grillo at 08:50 AM in | Comments (3) | Comments in Italian (translated) Post a comment | Sign up | Send to a friend | | GrilloNews | listen_it_it.gifListen |
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Default, changing the currency with massive devaluation only works when your trade partners are growing their economies and if the terms of trade go your way. You are thinking of Argentina, where this tactic turned out OK? But Italy doesn't have dynamic Brazil next door, it has moribund Europe; and it can't rely on soya bean prices to go through the roof. And I don't think that the world market for sly politicians, silicon show-babes or half-arsed public servants is about to turn any time soon either.


Default, and new currency with massive revaluation without the most favorable (now absent) conditions, just leads to hyperinflation.
The relevant historical comparison isn't Argentina, early 2000s, its Weimar, early 1930s.

So this leaves Italy with either the full Monti or the abyss.

Posted by: Carlo Santangelo | November 16, 2011 10:55 PM


I'm pretty sure France will find it extremely useful to start recovering a few millions of the Italian debt they've - er - invested in by building nuclear power stations all over the place ... just think, Italy could become a major nuclear generating/ experimentation station of the world....What fun.
Is there not a very large herd of elephants down south, where land - as well as politics - is more and more likely to be just left to get on with itself?

Posted by: jill phillips | November 16, 2011 09:54 AM


I'm pretty sure France will find it extremely useful to start recovering a few millions of the Italian debt they've - er - invested in by building nuclear power stations all over the place ... just think, Italy could become a major nuclear generating/ experimentation station of the world....What fun.
Is there not a very large herd of elephants down south, where land - as well as politics - is more and more likely to be just left to get on with itself?

Posted by: jill phillips | November 16, 2011 09:53 AM


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