What will happen in 2012? “Who knows what will happen to us?/We’ll discover it just by living it”. However there are already a few clues. It’ll be a year of survival followed by 2013 which will be even harsher. We’re in for a couple of cast iron years. Unemployment will explode. Families will spend less and will dip into their savings (if they have any) to try and keep up their standard of living. Liquidity will become something that is ever more rare. Banks will not lend money to companies; many will go bust, squeezed between the reduction in production and the impossibility of getting access to credit. There will be the completion of the domino effect that started in 2008. After the banks and the states, the contagion will affect the companies. The problem is that after the companies there’s nothing. The shops will fill up with unsold goods. The streets with unemployed people. What’s the use of merchandise if no one can buy it? The great machinery of world commerce will slow down almost to a halt. Many countries will go into recession. Italy will have a drop of more than one per cent and I’m an optimist. Without money, without work and with the country in recession, there’ll be an increase in emigration abroad that’s already happening, especially among young people, not just within Europe, but also to China and South America. For those staying in Italy, life will be tough. Prices will increase, together with inflation, as has happened in Greece. The government will have to face up to the interest on bonds that will get close to 100 billion euro with the new rates. To do that it will increase the taxes on consumer staples and it will use BTPs to pay part of the pensions, of the salaries of state employees and of the debts with private companies. While I’m writing this I feel like escaping abroad. Don’t worry; I’ll stay here with you. You won’t get rid of me so easily.
In 2012 the price of real estate will go down by between 10 and 20 per cent. There’ll be a race to sell, but few buyers. We need to get ready for a war-time economy. Don’t get into debt and pay off any debts you have if possible. Don’t buy shares. Don’t buy state bonds. Don’t take out a mortgage and cut out any superfluous spending. Anyone that has savings should open deposit accounts in a number of banks or, better still, a Post Office account. Invest in kitchen gardens, in land for cultivation. Land is the best insurance for the future. Get together in “Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale” {Ethical purchasing groups}. There are ever more of these in every city. When the crisis has passed over, you will feel stronger, you will have got used to valuing the important things and valuing your time. Who knows, perhaps the period awaiting us is a blessing.