The red line

linea_rossa.jpg
On the horizon there’s the red line: the end of oil. Where is it placed? At 15, 30 years? We know for certain that we will see a post-oil world. Similar to but different from the post-bomb scenarios. No one can say with certainty how much oil remains. Almost all agree that half has already been used. The cheapest, the part nearest the surface. To extract oil costs energy. If it takes 2 litres of oil to extract one, then it’s not worth it. The oil in the Mariana Trench is not economic.
What will happen after the end of oil, and above all what will happen before that?
States work on energy. At a well that’s drying up, only the strongest animals get to drink. The armed States will drink the oil, and towards the end, when the well has become a puddle, they will fight each other.
Alternative energies cannot in the medium term, be a substitute for oil. There will be a transition period of at least decades. Before the economy of oil, there were one thousand million of us. Now there are six thousand million. Will we go back to being one thousand million? Agriculture needs oil, machines and fertilizer; without that there’s famine.
Whole zones of the planet are not self-sustaining. Without transport, they will close down. The neighbour’s grass will get greener and the neighbour will not want to share. The transport of goods will become a luxury. Tomatoes from China and tin baskets from Mexico will become an obscene memory. The outskirts of the cities without supermarkets, gas, oil, fields, water will not be great places to live. If it’s possible, they’ll be worse than now.
After the red line, what’s waiting for us is neo feudalism. The land, the communities, the animals, relationships, the capacity of individuals will become important. While waiting for a new form of universal energy that perhaps we would willingly do without.

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Posted by Beppe Grillo at 10:52 PM in | Comments (7)
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Hello there,
Just to prove the point that Italy is completely disconnected from the real world!
Prize of oil on 10Aug2007 was $72-73, upon being called by the Ministry of industry gasoline prize dropped 0.04 Euros (Prize of Unleaded at that time was $2.02 per Gallons).
Gallon=3.785 Liters
1 Euro=1.356 Dollars
Therefore 1 Liter gasoline=0.393 Euros
Today Unleaded is=1.92 Dollars
Therefore 1 Liter gasoline=0.374 Euros
All this while prize of oil has dropped from $72-73 to $69.43 today.
To sum it all up it’s irrelevant what type of energy Italy depends on, Italian will pay through the nose either way, the costs and emissions are all coming from the same source Incompetent/Irrelevant/Stupid Italian Leaders!
Thanks

Posted by: Giacomo Chiametti | August 23, 2007 05:56 PM


Carbon based economy is here to stay. There are not viable EFFICIENT alternatives

Posted by: rob zava | August 22, 2007 02:51 PM


Everybody thinks in terms of changing completely our habits.
As always, the truth lays in the middle: oil will be used for another 100 years if technology would be mixed with different systems of power generation.
Is absurd to think that one day all cars and trycks working with an internal combustion system will be thrown down a cliff or laying in the street silent like dead bodies.
Instead, the alternative technology must be introduced now and blended with the existing one.
Only by doing it in this way the prices of gasoline will not be driven up to the roof while everybody would get panicky.
The government(s) should get hold of these new technologies and help the companies or the individuals involved with them to put them on the market.
Here in USA the hybrid cars are already on the market since 3 years ago with even a fiscal deduction of 2-3,000 dollars.
Personally I don't think the hybrid will solve the problem because for example we don't know what will happen to the batteries when they will be disposed of (beside the fact that when they will need to be replaced the car will be out of warranty and the expense will be around $4000-5000 which will suck out all the savings made on gas).
But let's see now what happens.
By the way: Chevrolet is already advertising their new fuel cell car.
What happens in Europe beside the new BMW Hi?

Posted by: Giovanni Principe | August 22, 2007 02:14 PM


come mai non commenta + nessuno?

Posted by: daniele | August 22, 2007 01:30 PM


I hope that the change time will arrive early

Posted by: cristina | August 22, 2007 11:33 AM


http://www.galileo2001.it/materiali/documenti/Franco_Battaglia/index.php

Here's a transcript about solar energy from the web site above, basically it is all down to efficiencies and usability.
“ Let's say the sun sends 200 watts on every square meter (sm) per day on average . The efficiencies are: 0,5 W/sm with hydroelectric or the firewood to burn (less than that if is cultivated biomass), 1 W/sm with the wind power. 20 W/sm with photovoltaic cells panels, and 100 W/sm with solar collectors (heating water).It might seem strange, but more than 95% of the “solar” energy that we use is supplied by the less efficient forms: firewood to burn and hydroelectric energy and for a very good reason. The energy is most useful when we can use it on demand (stored energy), not during the night or when the wind isn't blowing. That's why we prefer the firewood to burn and the hydroelectric river basins: they are, so to speak, the energy tanks and we can decide when to burn wood or when to open the tap to generate hydroelectric power.”

Another point of view on how sustainable a way of producing energy is, can be borrowed from biology using joules as currency (joules in and joules out). Can a form of energy reproduce itself? Let's consider a factory making photovoltaic panels powered by ... photovoltaic panels, human workforce, knowledge and nothing else. Can this factory produce enough PV cells that will in turn give enough energy to keep the workforce and build another factory that will make more PV cells and so on? And we have to keep in mind that at present PV cells last 10 years. If this factory cannot have “offspring” and more within these 10 years it is doomed. That' s why efficiencies are so important.

Posted by: rob zava | August 22, 2007 08:40 AM


http://www.galileo2001.it/materiali/documenti/Franco_Battaglia/index.php

Here's a transcript about solar energy from the web site above, basically it is all down to efficiencies and usability.
“ Let's say the sun sends 200 watts on every square meter (sm) per day on average . The efficiencies are: 0,5 W/sm with hydroelectric or the firewood to burn (less than that if is cultivated biomass), 1 W/sm with the wind power. 20 W/sm with photovoltaic cells panels, and 100 W/sm with solar collectors (heating water).It might seem strange, but more than 95% of the “solar” energy that we use is supplied by the less efficient forms: firewood to burn and hydroelectric energy and for a very good reason. The energy is most useful when we can use it on demand (stored energy), not during the night or when the wind isn't blowing. That's why we prefer the firewood to burn and the hydroelectric river basins: they are, so to speak, the energy tanks and we can decide when to burn wood or when to open the tap to generate hydroelectric power.”

Another point of view on how sustainable a way of producing energy is, can be borrowed from biology using joules as currency (joules in and joules out). Can a form of energy reproduce itself? Let's consider a factory making photovoltaic panels powered by ... photovoltaic panels, human workforce, knowledge and nothing else. Can this factory produce enough PV cells that will in turn give enough energy to keep the workforce and build another factory that will make more PV cells and so on? And we have to keep in mind that at present PV cells last 10 years. If this factory cannot have “offspring” and more within these 10 years it is doomed. That' s why efficiencies are so important.

Posted by: rob zava | August 22, 2007 08:40 AM


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