The Cancer Forecast

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Incinerators are popping up in Italian regions like amanita phalloides. They can be seen from a long way away. Design objects. They even organise school trips. They are the poisonous mushrooms of the parties. You dont have to pick them to die. Its enough just to breathe them. They are recommended on TV on programmes led by vile presenters.
The incinerator party is across the board. But Casinis party wants to place four in his Sicilian feudal area, and it goes even beyond his territory, he wants to get all the Sicilians nearer to the other world.
The separation and collection of refuse makes incinerators useless. The elimination of superfluous packaging leads them to zero.
The map of incinerators super-imposed on the reduction in life expectancy due to anthropogenic PM 2.5 in Italy is illuminating. The more there are incinerators, the more there are tumours for everyone.
The map makes it possible to do Cancer forecasting. In the Po Valley, its widespread like the fog.

In Calabria and in the East of Sicily theres an intense diffusion but cumuliform. However, its limited, matched by a reduction in PM 2,5 in the West of Sicily.

Pleasant health in the Eastern Alps and in the Valle dAosta. In the latter region theres the forecast of a serious worsening due to the arrival of a brand new incinerator.

The distribution of tumours in the whole of the country tends to be stratified and to be spread out with a certain continuity. The forecast of widespread deaths in the medium term is more or less certain.
An electoral tornado could blow away the causes of the low life expectancy if they manage to get an interest among the political groupings that are the most exposed in relation to incinerators. Details to follow.
List of incinerators: APAT, refuse report 2006
Map of the reduction in life expectancy: IIASA

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Posted by Beppe Grillo at 03:29 PM in | Comments (27)
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Hi Grace,

Hope you're OK. Who are we going to vote for? That's a little like asking "To be or not to be." I can't bring myself to vote for anybody. People are telling me to plug my nose and vote for somebody. I can't even do that.

Speedy recovery (if you haven't recovered)and best wishes.

Hello Paolo,

I know. Italian problems are like libyrinths. Thanks, anyway.
Best wishes

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 11, 2008 03:23 AM

Dear Gianni, i told you, "yes we can" (with Veltroni, otherwise i can tell you now where we are going to end:-) this time would be the last try, i guess. We will see. All your good observation have one point: they would work also if we splitt. My hope is a very strong federalism if not secession, would enforce "individual responsability-feeling for the res pubblica" the real fault of italiens. We in the north have no dirigent-manager class. that would be a huge challange. But if you say things are getting better (except somewhere in sicily, were they get so lots of money for there autonomy you can't immagine)i don't know when you have been last time in Italy. Mafia fighting hasn't even start except sicily. I really don't want to encounter all the things, which are going desperatly wrong and look like they never change. You don't know how we "north" feel ashamed and humilated for how pubblic aministration works on every level except comunal.
It's a too long work to explain, try to get regolarly the Espresso, actually the best journal we have. Regards
PS:Italy should be the hottest destination of the world, like we were when i was young, remember? This is just very little to our possibilities in the south, don't you think?

Dear Louis, also your question is too complicated to explain. You should have expierienced it to understand it better. Like i was saying befor, social-and pubblic feeling in italy is tending to zero, from the top of the leaders to the bottom of the street. like : if mister x is paid or forced to take rubbisch it's not my very problem. Until nothing bad happens, so let them, it's not my job. Poison? what's it, sun is shining so beautyful...
Ok, this is exagerated, but this has a good point. Your observation is very nice and sadly enough not far from reallity, meanwhile exponential in the south. That's it. regards, Paolo

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 10, 2008 11:23 PM

Hi to all I see nothing has changed in the last few days been ill with the flu! So I'm still asking who are we going to vote for?
Lucky I have sky so I don't have to watch Italian telly!!!

Posted by: grace | February 10, 2008 10:08 PM


America helped Italy to spare Comunism in 1948 and America can help Italy to wake up to the 21st Century now.
Would you image the Mayor of NYC or the Govenor of NY State keeping thier position if NY would be submerged by rubbish? Iervolino and Bassolino should go, they should be disgraced and prevented from running in the upcoming elections.
Let us meet up to write down a vision for the future of Italy: Yes we can.
We can say that if 300 millions American have only 100 Senators, also Italy should cut the Senate by 2/3. Yes we can.
We can say that convicted politicians should not run for elections.Yes,Judiciary in Italy is far from perfect. Berlusconi is no Saint, he has a point. Just imagine if Campania would be ruled by one of Berlusconi instead of Bassolino. He would have been arrested. But yes, clean Institutions,yes we can.
In Finland in the '90 the President cut his salary by 20% to show the people it was time to save. In Italy savings announced by President Napolitano are a joke. The Presidente should cut his expenses by 20% and no public servant should gain more than the President himself:Yes we can.
Free press is ket to democracy: abolition of any press subsidy and of the RAI tax. Yes we can.

Let's meet up

Posted by: Libero DallaRai | February 10, 2008 07:00 PM

Hello Paolo,

Thanks for providing me with a better picture of and giving me a better understanding of the situation. I should have known better than to trust main-stream media. I will certainly read the book you recommended. Can you please explain to me how it was possible to ignore this problem for 14 years? Did people just stand by and watch while poison was being dumped on their country and towns? Or, is this a case proving that Italians will accept anything and adapt to anything only to have them cry when things are beyond repair? (The "tira a campa'" syndrome of Pasqualino Sette Bellezze" with Giancarlo Giannini.) In any event, I hope people there are now smart enough to oppose the construction of incinerators - but I'm not going to hold my breath. By the way, I read and write Italian, so feel free to write in Italian if you wish. I'm writing in English only because it's easier for me than writing in Italian.

best wishes

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 10, 2008 06:42 PM

Can you imagine what wold happen if the North split from the rest of Italy? Oh yes, it would be good for the North-more money to spend on stuff for the North. I understand the frustration of having to pay taxes to support the South. However the South would be in an even bigger mess if this did happen. While a lot of the money paid in taxes by Northern Italians is indeed wasted, at least some of it does go towards trying to make the South a wealthier place. I know there are huge corruption problems/waste problems/drug problems etc but things are changing fo the better in some regions. Unemployment is down The Sicilian mafia has been significantly weakened. Tourists are starting to come to previously undiscovereed regions such as Calabria. I know this because where I live now (Ireland) Italy is the hot destination. All the newspapers are advertisng property in Calabria. It has been hailed as the new Spain. This is a huge change rom a couple of years back. Basilicata has become a major manufacturing centre with large oil reserves, Puglia's fertile land and light manufacturing industry has lifted Puglia out of obscurity. Sicily was recently described as the next big tourist destination. Things are still bad, yes, but they're better than they were. Your taxes DO make a difference in Southern Italy. The Cosa Nostra has been defeated by business men standing up for there rights. With police help the same can be done with the Camorra. Thee is hope for Italy, but secession IS not the answer. This would jus create even greater inequality and cause huge immigration to N. Italy. Is that what you want? Millions of poor Southern Itaians that would likely form a new Mafia? Is't it better to assist them? I wish Italians would rememeber that Italy is one country. People must look out for the good of the country if they wish to change things.

Posted by: Gianni Veroni | February 10, 2008 06:34 PM

Hi Louis, i try to answer you, the best i can, the best i know:
-Are you telling me that all those people out on the street complaining they have at least one member in the family with cancer and that some families have one or more are not telling the truth?-

No, probably they had fatalities, but why every not so common and common cancer from this very moment in Neaples are surely because of waste? It's ridicolous. i told you, it's about +8% and in case of strange "incidents" is high but in national average. This is opportunistic from some people telling the "street"-people that they are going to die. Lots complaind lung-melanoma and no of them underlined, this happend nevermind they where not smoking, so they did. Understand?
-Are you saying that the industrial waste dumped in the countryside is not as bad as it's made out to be?- No this is for sure as badly they tell, and the problem is there was no care where they throw the industrial waste, otherwise it would be almost normal like everywhere.

-If this is the case then we're dealing with people who are in bad faith.-
Sometimes, but especially who is administrating them, and aministrating means not necessarily in the democratic way, understand?

-If you can't trust the people telling you the truth how in the world can you trust anybody is telling you in Italy?-You got the point and you start to think always the opposite they say, politician, managers, everyone... me myself is doing so:-(

The thought that organized crime was in involved in creating that huge mess did cross my mind.-It's the biggest buissnes of the mafia lately. You accept waste for 1 a kilo (industrial 5) instead o 2 (20 for industrial) the legal wastedeposit do. (i don't know the real charge, but for example) 0,1 goes to the farmer, most very poor, to let this sometimes dangerous waste deposite in his fied.

-Now, I'm not even sure where the people stand: are they supporting organized crime?- READ FROM CURZIO MALAPARTE "LA PELLE-THE SKIN" and you will get an idea about napoli-mentality. the problem for me ist that people since decades lost aspiration and follow everybody who can assure the some earnig for middle-low-poor standard-living. And now of course they are too afraid to rebel, because nation Italy did not support them, was COMPLETLY ABSENT in administration and public order and worse,OFTEN INVOLVED WITH CRIME!!!!

Or they simply care about keeping the trash out of their backyard?-Yes, but likely to the last decades they don't care how, most important for them: not in my town!!

I'mm beginning to think that there is no hope for anything in Italy. -Me too, it's a very frustratig feelig. I'm not really left, but i hope so much in Veltroni. If this wouldn't change, there could be very big troubel. Support us, while telling everybody who wants to know the truth!!

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 10, 2008 03:37 PM

Hello Paolo,
Your last post blew me away. It made me realize that I don't know Italy as well as I thought. Are you telling me that all those people out on the street complaining they have at least one member in the family with cancer and that some families have one or more are not telling the truth? Are you saying that the industrial waste dumped in the countryside is not as bad as it's made out to be? If this is the case then we're dealing with people who are in bad faith. If you can't trust the people telling you the truth how in the world can you trust anybody is telling you in Italy? The thought that organized crime was in involved in creating that huge mess did cross my mind. Now, I'm not even sure where the people stand: are they supporting organized crime? Or they simply care about keeping the trash out of their backyard? We got do-nothing politicians, organized crime profiting from this mess, and people caring only their little piece of land shedding crocodile tears. Who the fuck can be believed in Italy? Why the fuck everybody has to play the "furbizia" game? That game has ruined Italy and is ruining Italy. The only people gaining are the politicians and organized crime. I'mm beginning to think that there is no hope for anything in Italy. I saw the Youtube clip on Anno Zero, and my heart goes out for the two young men that told all the politicians on the show to fuck-off before a national audience.

Best wishes

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 10, 2008 02:48 PM

i have english as mother tongue, and can say that beppe's posts are in really good english....some of the posters less, but it's great to see people posting here anyway.

it would be interesting to see a survey on how much rubbish per capita was produced in the different regions of italy. here in umbria it is differentiated (but not at home pickup like germany), and the streets are clean.

ok, you can't eat off the sidewalk like switzerland!

Posted by: michael | February 10, 2008 05:46 AM

you see, if there comes back Berlusconi, the same thing starts again. he is likly to pay everyone to get what he wants. All this money is actually missing in the rest of the country (everyday 0,20 from any Italian just for bringing the campagnian rubbish to German!!! I'm paying 6 a month!!!!Only for the rubbish in Napoli!! Many people and companies are suffering from the high taxes and Italy grows not even a little bit. I hope Veltroni make the run. If nothing happend, if there aren't signs of getting better, i definitly want the secessione, northitalians have a lot of faults in many issue like this, but now it's enough, IT'S ALSO ABOUT OUR CHILDREN, don't you think so? With regards, Paolo

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 10, 2008 12:17 AM

Dear Louis, please don't put it in terms like "people is dying". This is far exagerate, hysteria is likly to us, especially meridions . Actually the cancer rate is about +8% to the rest, in part because of eating habits and hepatitis, storically a great diffusion in this area. Don't believe all they tell you, believe me.
All this mess started because of money, probably some mafiosi wanted more money or some brave diden't gave enough (or simply they ran out of public money, ours!!!!!! 2, some inofficial says 8 miliards of euro in 14 Years, can you believe? Just for Napoli and circondaries?!) and they know that if they things getting worse, they will get what they want. Something went wrong (from their sight) And all the people which now is on the street cry their are dying probably make troubels and pressure, hoping somebody is paying, so to get at least the street clean. This is Italy my friend! This is not racism, that's the sad truth.
Most of them cry know for solidarity (i would like) but in 30 years with 57 of 600 deputates and mountains of public money, not one denounce so far? It's a shame....
Nero before singing did something other:-) little joke..

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 10, 2008 12:03 AM

Your blog needs English translators for whom English is a mother-tongue!

Posted by: Margaret McCann | February 9, 2008 07:56 PM

Gentile Sg. Grillo--i 'translations' in inglese sono un po assurdo. Potete trovare un translator con inlese come prima lingua, per piacere? Altramente, bravo!

Posted by: Margaret McCann | February 9, 2008 07:53 PM

Hello Paolo,

I agree with you that as far as the Campania region goes the situation is completely out of control. And I know that the urgency of the situation makes incinerators look as the best solution - even though building one incinerator takes about three years. But what concerns me the most is the widespread toxic pollution in the countryside of that region and Italy as a whole. Italy in general has a problem of enormous proportions which the political and entrepreneural class, are totally blind to and lack the ability to understand its impact. In the meantime, Italians are dying. The skyrocketing cancer rates in Campania have reached intolerable levels, yet I don't see the situation being taken seriously. Italian politicians are acting like Nero, but where Nero sings as Rome burns, they talk as people are dying as a result of their utter lack of, or maybe they just don't give a fuck. In any event, as I was saying, I think the only solution for many people in Campania and other places is to remove themselves from the contaminated areas. Their idea of removing the contaminants will not work. From what I've seen on TV the destruction is far, far worse than I ever imagined. If the government is really serious about people's health, then the government would relocate them. But I have a feeling the government is acting like Bush when Katrina hit New Orleans: talk the good talk about rebuilding the city and then do nothing, or as little as possible -after all New Orleans is mostly Black. And I did hear a many Italian politicians say they want nothing to to do with the trash problem in Southern Italy because it's time Southerners solve their own problems: racism always has a rationalization. In the immediacy of the moment however, and as a matter of priority I think people should leave and then find the solution to the trash without the use of incinerators.
All the Best.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 9, 2008 03:26 PM

dear Mr. Pacella, i have the same opinion about inceneritors, but this will be an issue for the next 15 years, 'cause as you clearly see, the italian local administration in the south is not even abel to clean up the streets! Would you like to pay 200 a ton of rubbisch to bring it to Germany?? It's a tremendous shame. (only for Neaples 5000t a day= 10million !!!) Now we need it!
And the map isn't exclusivly about inceneritos, the pianura padana has a lot of enviroment problems cause his density of population, traffic, industries and climatic position. Take care, paolo

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 9, 2008 12:00 PM

Dear Beppe, your blog in English is atrocious.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 11:03 PM

Its all right your blog. Im congratulate with your opinions and with the way you use to explain the social and political problems. I trust people would be able to join and cry to the system!!

Posted by: jorge | February 8, 2008 06:23 PM

Incinerators destroy the environment and impacts human health. These are proven scientific facts. If we ignore them, like they ignored the dumping of toxic waste in Campania,we will endanger our lives and the lives of future generations. One of the most troubling thing about incinerators is that they must run for 40 years in order to recoupe the investment but are only efficient for 20 years. That means we have to burn huge amounts of trash. In other words, we are encouraged to always produce more trash so that it can be burned. Of course, the sustainable recicle and reuse system will then be discouraged.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 03:58 PM

Paolo, no one here is a fundamentalist of any kind. I look at this blog as a mean to inform the public on issues main-stream media shies away from. Everything you read about incinerators on this blog has been proven as facts by scientist and health professionals from around the world.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 03:35 PM

please help stop tony blair becoming EU president!

go here for petition in italian:

Posted by: michael | February 8, 2008 02:38 PM

Come mai in Sicilia dove c' pure un forte ricambio di aria dal mare con NEANCHE UN INCENERITORE (MA SONO CENTRALI NUCLEARI DI PUNTO IN BIANCO????) arancione??? Morriremo tutti????? Ora smettetela con questo fondamentalismo verde, pi che fuoriluogo poi in questo momento, quando non si neanche capace di organizzare la raccolta rifiuti, PLEASE!!!!!! (Peggio di pecorino scarno)

Posted by: Paolo Zanandrea | February 8, 2008 02:18 PM

Caro Beppe,

Premetto che non amo l'idea di avere inceneritori in giro per l'Italia. Sono uno spreco di risorse che potrebbero benissimo essere riciclate e/o smaltite in maniera piu razionale.

Ma se lei osserve la mappa del rischi di cancro presentata nel suo post, si accorgera' che il rischio di cancro non correla esattamente con gli inceneritori, bensi con i piu generici livelli di inquinamento / sviluppo industriale.

Osservi ad esempio la Sardegna: pur con due inceneritori ha la stessa mortalita' della Corsica che non ne ha nessuno. E per spiegare il blob arancione della parte orientale della sicilia occorre invocare spiegazioni esterne - non ci sono inceneritori li'. Il trentino, poi, con il suo bell'inceneritore ha il rischio piu basso d'Italia.

In compenso, se osserviamo le zone rosse nel centro - sud italia possiamo immediatamente identificare le grandi zone urbane: Napoli, Roma, Siracusa, Palermo, etc. E osservando la Corsica si riconosce subito la zona di Bastia.
Quanto al Nord Italia, la Pianura Padana e' ormai considerata una megalopoli dal punto di vista urbanistico, con livelli di inquinamento elevatissimi.

In altre parole, la correlazione con l'elevato rischio di cancro deriva da una piu' complessa situazione, di cui gli inceneritori costituiscono solo un aspetto, probabilmente non cosi essenziale. I prodotti derivanti dalle idustrie, dall'elevato traffico e in generale dall'inurbamento dovuto allo sviluppo economico sono probabilmente i maggiori colpevoli della mortalita' differenziale da lei evidenziata - e meritano forse una priorita' piu' elevata nell'azione di contrasto e protesta degli inceneritori.

Posted by: Andrea Murachelli | February 8, 2008 12:26 PM

I apologize for spelling "Beppe" wrong.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 11:51 AM

Dear Beepe, I posted a comment about incinerators last night but for some unexplained reason failed to go on. I would like to know why since the comment was well within the rules.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 11:47 AM

No to Tony Blair as EU president

Posted by: E G | February 8, 2008 11:02 AM

A few years ago I said to my very religious fiancee ;" Italians put No Value on Human Life , apart from that of the Unborn Child ". She was deeply shock and said ," That's Not true , How can You say Such a Thing "! A week later she said to me, " What you said about Italians not valuing human life , is quite true .
Italians Drive cars dangerously in a manner likely to kill themselves and others . Roads , even autostrade are too narrow , insufficiently maintained , tunnels have defective interior lighting .
A higher death rate among the elderly would help , with regard to too few younger people financing pensions for too many older people .
Political Expediency is what counts !!!

Posted by: David Barneby | February 8, 2008 05:04 AM

According to politicians, emission spewed out by the new breed of incinerators, is as salubrious as sea-breeze. In fact they're so safe that some European cities built them within their city limits. Sounds reassuring, right? After all, would they lie to the people? Would they let our children breathe poisonous air? Of course not. But did they bother to research the industry's own data which proves that modern incinerators emit mercury at a rate 5 times higher per unit of electricity generated than coal? Did they bother to find out that modern incinerators emit greenhouse gases at a rate substantially higher than coal-fired or natural-gas fired power plants? Probably not. And, have our politicians considered that once the incinerator is built, it's gotta have it, gotta be fed waste everyday? Don't ever talk about about reducing waste or recycling around the machine. The machine's gotta eat and it wants to eat waste. Don't ever talk about reducing packaging; say nothing about recycling, resource conservation, zero waste and sustainable economy. How much does the glutton need? All the waste that can be possibly be produced. As much as possible. And don't worry, the machine will make everything disappear into thin air. The machine? God's gift to politicians.

Posted by: Louis Pacella | February 8, 2008 12:39 AM

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